What Racing 92’s big Clermont win means for the final round of French rugby’s Top 14
The scale and manner of Racing 92’s Top 14 win on Sunday changed a host of top-six calculations for the final round of matches this coming weekend
Racing 92 shook up the Top 14 firmament with their 41-13 win at Clermont on Sunday – and meant a play-off permutation recalculation for several sides
In the great scheme of things, very little changed after Racing 92’s crushing 41-13 win over Clermont in the final match of the penultimate round of the regular Top 14 season on Sunday evening.
On Monday, the Earth still spun on its axis, as it always has done, giving the illusion that the sun was still rising, as it always has done. And yet, in the very particular Top 14 niche, things were suddenly very different.
The scale and manner of Racing’s win, with the five league points that propelled them up the table from eighth to fifth, surprised even seasoned Top 14 watchers. And it changed a whole host of top-six calculations for the final round of matches on Saturday.
Before we move on, here are the results from the 25th weekend of 26 leading into the three additional post-season play-off rounds.
And here’s the table. The top six enter a post-season play-off for the Bouclier de Brennus, the top eight qualify for next season’s Champions Cup. The bottom team is relegated, replaced by the champions of the ProD2, and the one that finishes 13th plays the loser of the ProD2 final in a promotion-relegation play-off.
The top four sides – Toulouse, Montpellier, Stade Francais and, for the first time, Pau – have qualified for the post-season knockouts. Toulouse will finish top of the table and go directly to the play-off semi-finals in Marseille on the weekend of June 19 and 20. Montpellier and Stade Francais are in a two-way battle for second – whoever wins that will also enjoy a direct route to the semi-finals.
They will await the winners of the two barrage-round matches on June 13 and 14. Toulouse will play the winner of the match between fourth and fifth on June 19, while the side that finishes second will face the side that wins the barrage-round match between third and sixth on June 20.
That leaves two available spots, with four teams – Racing, Bordeaux, La Rochelle and Clermont – in the race to fill them.
Here is the fixture list for the final round of the season. Every match kicks off at 9pm (CET) on Saturday, June 6.
Bayonne v Perpignan and Castres v Toulon are dead-rubber matches.
Perpignan cannot escape 13th, the promotion-relegation play-off spot. Their focus, their investment, is entirely on match 27 of their domestic season rather than match 26.
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Meanwhile, the most noticeable effect from Castres-Toulon is that the hosts could climb to 10th in the table, or drop to 12th, from their current 11th place. The campaign has been a failure for both sides. The hosts, however, who have only won once since January, and not at all since March, would prefer to finish the campaign on something approaching a positive note.
But some league importance rides on every other match.
Pau, fourth in the table, can reasonably expect a bonus-point win at home against already relegated Montauban. This would be more than enough to tie-up home advantage in the barrage round – Sebastien Piqueronies may even decide to rest a number of first-choice players for their play-off run.
READ ALSO ‘Sliding doors’ moments that changed Pau fullback Jack Maddocks’ life forever
Racing 92’s bonus-point win over Clermont, however, did more than just propel them to fifth in the table. It also handed them control of their own future – a win over leaders Toulouse at La Defence Arena on Saturday evening will see them return to the play-offs after missing out last season for the first time since their return to the top-flight in 2008/09.
Despite their league position, the reigning champions have been strangely inconsistent for some time – off-field salary cap-related legal issues are, perhaps, leaking on to the training pitch – but could put out a strong side as part of their semi-final preparations.
But Racing have won four of their last five and have lost just once at home all season – ironically, their one defeat in their last five. The odds, with top six qualification to play for, are in the Franciliens’ favour.
In the unlikely event that Pau slip up against Montauban, Racing could even sneak home advantage in the barrage round. But a post-season away day is the most likely for Patrice Collazo’s squad.
As well as handing Racing control of their destiny, it also snatched it away – totally or in part – from the three other sides in the hunt for the post-season play-offs.
Before Racing messed up everyone’s carefully calculated permutations with their shock win at Stade Marcel Michelin, the round 26 match between recrowned Champions Cup holders Bordeaux and Clermont was billed as an early play-off knockout. In many ways, it still is. It’s just not quite the easy-to-understand winner-takes-all knockout encounter it was.
The maths remains straightforward enough for Bordeaux. A bonus-point win guarantees a play-off place. A win without a bonus could leave the door just ajar enough for La Rochelle.
For Clermont, meanwhile, their play-off hopes hang by the most fragile of threads. Down in eighth after Sunday night’s home loss, they’re relying heavily on outside help – as they did last season – to finish in the top six.
They have to win. That’s a given. But they also need Racing 92, at home to Toulouse, and La Rochelle, who host Stade Francais at Stade Marcel Deflandre, to lose.
Which brings us to the fourth side in the quartet in the hunt for two top six places: La Rochelle. After running in 11 tries against hapless Montauban on Saturday afternoon, they climbed briefly into the top six.
But Racing’s big Sunday night win has made the sums rather more complicated for Ronan O’Gara’s side. A win over Paul Gustard’s Stade Francais on Saturday would take them to 72 points, a bonus-point win to 73.
READ ALSO After season from hell, finally Ronan O'Gara and La Rochelle control their own playoff destiny
To climb into the top six with a four-point win, they would need fourth-placed Racing to lose or draw – without a try-scoring bonus – at home to Toulouse; or for Bordeaux to lose at home against Clermont.
A bonus-point win for La Rochelle would just about remove the Racing 92-Toulouse result from their side of the equation. If Bordeaux fail to pick up five points of their own, the Rochelais will take a play-off place, even if Racing do win. And if Racing lose, and Bordeaux and La Rochelle both win, then Racing miss out.
Got that? Good.
Looking for insightful French rugby content from someone who really knows the state of the game? My name is James Harrington. I’m a France-based freelance sports journalist, and I write mostly about French club and international rugby.
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You can read my French rugby column in The Rugby Paper every Sunday. I round-up Top 14, Champions and Challenge Cup and international action for the Irish Examiner, as well as for Rugbypass. I have also done bits for Rugby World, and cover the HSBC SVNS for svns.com
